Western Indian Ocean Marine Science Association

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Cities and Climate Change in Coastal Western Indian Ocean A Grand Challenge (CICLICO)

A. Basic Facts

Climate services are key in facilitating and achieving climate change adaptation and sustainable development. Thus, developing “actionable climate research”  for decision-makers and policy planners to integrate the projected impacts of climate change is necessary to deal with the challenge if managing complexity, conflicting demands, and opportunities at the interface of converging social, economic and ecological value in coastal cities. This in context of ecosystems already under pressure from human development, further exacerbated by climate change – the recognition of these pressures resulting in the efforts of countries to achieve the UN Sustainable Development Goals in particular goal 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities), 13 (Climate Action), 14 (Life Below Water), 15 (Life on Land) and 17 (Partnerships for Goals), the Paris Agreement, and the UNISDR Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction

This proposal focusses on three particular area-based management (ABM) tools, each with its own spatially-sensitive policy implementation cycle in context of the grand challenge relating to coastal cities of the WIO. These are: Marine Spatial Planning (MSP); Integrated Coastal Management (ICM); and Marine protected areas (MPAs).

Each of these management tools and processes follow roughly a similar policy implementation pathway. Each policy cycle (for ICM, MSP and MPA) will contain a set of objectives, as will the multitude of other management instruments that exist at coastal city level (Integrated Development Plans, Local Economic Development, Climate Adaptation Plans etc.). This simply resulting in “…a plurality of objectives held by pluralities of politics makes it impossible to pursue unitary aims” . The benefit of linking ICM to MPAs have been acknowledged. This plurality that is a barrier to efficiency [in environmental governance] forms the basis for one of the objectives of this proposal.

 

   i. Project Partners

Nelson Mandela University and German Climate Service Center (GERICS)

   ii. Project Duration 2019-2021
   iii. Project Site(s)
   iv. Project Country
   v. Budget USD 329 293
B. Project Objectives

The aim of CICLICO is to: Explore and plan, with decision-makers and society in the Algoa Bay and the city of Port Elizabeth, how diverse, often uncoordinated, objectives of coastal and marine planning can be implemented to enable better adaptation to climate change in vulnerable coastal cities of the WIO through the use of climate services for city planning tools.

The specific research objectives of the project are to:

Objective 1: Participatory mapping of the coastal and marine planning systems (tools, institutions, etc.) of the Nelson Mandela Bay municipality in Algoa Bay. The purpose is to understand area-based management approaches, governance perspectives, environmental assets and stakeholder conflicts in light of climate change. To develop climate services with stakeholders, the system needs to be understood, however as proof of concept, boundary setting undertaken with stakeholders will determine components within the system that can be addressed in the scope of the funding cycle.

Objective 2: Build a system dynamics model consisting of the key causalities of managing coastal and marine space in a changing climate. Understanding the drivers and mechanisms of possible change on area-based management that is dynamic will allow for discussion and validation of the models and the development of climate services.

Objective 3: Co-creation of climate services using system dynamic models as proof of concept. Climate services are intended to provide custom-designed and user-driven climate change data and information for use in decision-making. This objective will explore the type and nature of climate services to support coastal and marine planning tools of cities in the WIO.

C. Expected Results
  • Dynamic Systems Model, Fuzzy Cognitive Map, Policy recommendation, scenarios
  • Training and capacity needs assessment report with regards to integration of areabased management approaches (ICM, MSP, MPA)
  • Baseline report on extent ABM approaches are being applied
  • Scenarios /Pathways for coastal governance
  • Policy brief, model co-development with stakeholders
  • Scientific journal and international conference articles
  • Criteria for climate service selection developed with stakeholders; report of priorities
D. Project Activities
  • Desktop and expert-informed description of the status quo, character and modus operandi of the governance, climate and environmental systems of the case studies
  • Engagement with case study stakeholders to confirm and adjust objectives, develop sector-specific Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCMs) and generate a single FCM for Algoa Bay
  • Present and negotiate the potential outcome of a number of governance scenarios for the integration of Marine Spatial Planning (MSP); Integrated Coastal Management (ICM); and Marine protected areas (MPAs)
  • Development of the criteria for climate services to support ICM, MSP and MPAs
  • Development of a demonstration climate service(s) for use by coastal and marine area-based management (ABMs)
E. Publications

i) Celliers et al. Stratification of institutions in a complex coastal system: implications for participatory processes.
ii) Rivers et al. Institutional arrangements and agency within coastal area-based management in Algoa Bay, South Africa.
iii) Rölfer et al. Stakeholder and network analysis for climate adaptation planning in coastal areas (and implications for breaking undesirable resilient governance)

F. Students Supported by the Project 1. PhD candidate (GERICS) – Lena Rolfer 2.Post Doctoral Candidate (Nelson Mandela University) – Dr Nina Rivers
G. For more information, either visit or contact: https://algoabaydata.wixsite.com/website/ciclico

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