The main goal of the proposed project is to determine the responses of biological productivity and fisheries to changes in upwelling conditions associated with changes in atmospheric and oceanographic processes in the EACC shelf area of Kenya and Tanzania, and the corresponding vulnerability, resilience and adaptation options of the coastal fisheries dependent communities. The specific objectives of the project are to:
i) determine present and future trends in upwelling associated with changes in oceanographic (temperature) and surface meteorological (winds) conditions within the EACC system.
ii) determine how these trends have impacted marine productivity and small pelagic fisheries, and use of this biophysical relationship to predict future impacts.
iii) determine the vulnerability, resilience and adaptation options for fisheries dependent communities in the EACC upwelling region.
iv) understand the governance of small pelagic fisheries across scales, and explore the ability of governance institutions to respond to changes in the upwelling regimes of the EACC shelf region.
The methodology will entail combined regional and global observations, reanalysis products, and model projections. Changes in upwelling and productivity will be examined through remote sensing and biophysical modelling to investigate how the regional drivers of upwelling-favourable winds (land and ocean pressure systems) and stratification (ocean temperature), among other drivers of wind variability, have changed in the past and how they are expected to change in the future. This will be validated by undertaking field samples to analyze how these changes might impact the coastal upwelling process and ecosystems, and thus the marine productivity and fisheries in the upwelling region associated with the East African Coastal Current (EACC) off the coasts of Kenya and Tanzania.. To examine socio-economics and coastal governance, we will conduct socio-ecological surveys using a variety of tools such as Social Vulnerability.
The main outcomes of the project are:
i) Increased community awareness on the upwelling events and its effect on the fisheries Advance our understanding on predicting upwelling or downwelling events in the Coastal East Africa region
ii) Developed policies on management of EACC area and its impact on pelagic fishery
iii) Introduced alternative fishing grounds for artisanal and reduction of catches of vulnerable and threatened species
iv) Improved capacity on fisheries resource management
Acronym: PEACC (Productivity in the EACC under Climate Change)
Duration: 24 months (1 July 2016 – 30 June 2018)
Project Coordinator: Shigalla Mahongo
Tanzania Fisheries Research Institute (TAFIRI);
|Lead Institution:||Tanzania Fisheries Research Institute (TAFIRI)|
|Year of Approval:||2016|
|Project Country:||Comoros and South Africa|
|Investigators:||Shigalla B. Mahongo, Mathias Igulu, Issufo Halo, Marisol Garcia-Reyes, Rosemarie Mwaipopo, Margareth Kyewalyanga, Joseph Kamau, Philip O. Sagero, Jacob Ochiewo, Louisa S. Evans, Albogast Kamukuru, Fridah Munyi, and Majuto Manyilizu|
Objective 1: Determine trends in upwelling associated with changes in oceanographic & meteorological conditions within the EACC system
i) Determine past trends in upwelling using reanalysis data
ii) Formulate model that will incorporate oceanographic and meteorological data
iii) Model Verification
iv) Determine future trends in upwelling
Objective 2: Determine how the trends have impacted on marine productivity and small pelagic fisheries, and prediction of future impacts
i) Collect historical catch data and catch data for small pelagics
ii) Assess existing phytoplankton productivity data
iii) Assess historical ocean colour data
iv) Incorporate primary production and fisheries data into Oceanographic and meteorological model
Objective 3: Determine vulnerability, resilience and adaptation options for fisheries dependent communities in the EACC upwelling region
i) Collect historical socio-economic data
ii) Conduct vulnerability assessment in communities within the EACC upwelling region
Objective 4: Underscore socio-economic and governance issues related to changes in the upwelling regimes of the EACC
i) Review Fisheries Policy and Regulations in Tanzania and Kenya in the context of upwelling regimes
ii) Propose improvement to the Fisheries Policy and Regulation in the context of upwelling regimes
Students Supported by the Project and Titles of their Projects
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